Short and Long-run Impacts of Climatic variables on Agricultural Output in Egypt

نوع المستند : المقالة الأصلية

المؤلفون

1 قسم الاقتصاد - كلية التجارة - جامعة بنها

2 كلية التجارة-جامعة المنوفية

المستخلص

The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al., (2001) is used to estimate the long and short-run impacts of climatic factors, i.e., average temperature, average rainfall, and, CO2 emissions, on agriculture output in Egypt over 1980-2020. Control variables employed include energy consumption, fertilizer use, rural population, and domestic credit to the agriculture sector. According to the ARDL results, there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Egyptian agriculture output and the explanatory variables. In the long run, a 1% increase in CO2 emissions per capita will lead to a %3.72 decrease in agriculture output but an increase of average annual temperature by 1% results in a rise of the Egyptian agricultural value added by 2.962%. Rainfall is found to have a negative but insignificant impact on agrarian output. Regarding the long-run effects of non-climatic factors, a 1% increase in fertilizer use, energy consumption, percentage of rural population to total population, and credit to agricultural sector would result in an increase of the agrarian production by around 1.3%, 4%, 13%, and 0.26%, respectively. With regard to short-run dynamics, the error-correction term has the expected negative sign implying that about 5% of any movements from disequilibrium are corrected for within the same year. Short-run elasticities are lower than long-run counterparts, with the short-run coefficient of fertilizers use having a negative and significant impact on agrarian value added. lagged agriculture credit negatively impacts agricultural output, as smallholder farmers lack access to credit due to collateral issues.

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